Kathmandu, Jan. 7: The winter season is going to end in a month, but there has been little rain or snowfall. Winter rainfall is considered an important water source for winter crops and plays a vital role in replenishing groundwater reserves.

According to Madhukar Upadhaya, a senior watershed expert, there has been a significant change in the winter rainfall pattern over the past few years. Previously, it used to rain in Mangsir (November-December), followed by a dry period in Paush (December-January) and then rains again in Magh (January-February), providing sufficient moisture for winter crops. However, winter droughts began in 2009 and recurred in 2016 and 2019. In the last two years, there has been a complete absence of winter rainfall.

The westerly winds used to bring rainfall to the country, but global warming has disrupted this system. Changes in the polar region and the jet stream are affecting the westerly winds. “Previously, the polar region used to be much colder while the equator hotter, creating a significant temperature difference. However, this difference has now diminished as the polar region has started to warm up, leading to more frequent winter droughts,” Upadhaya explained.

“We often say there is no snow in the mountains, but without winter rainfall, there will be no additional snow in the mountains. This will undoubtedly affect the lower regions, impacting agricultural productivity and water sources,” he explained. “We still have one month for the winter season, let’s hope for the rainfall but I don’t think there will be good rainfall during this period,” he added.

“It has been 15 years since the first winter drought began, yet no significant preparedness measures have been implemented. While we cannot control rainfall patterns, we could have developed rainwater harvesting systems to make use of stored water during dry periods,” Upadhaya said.

Meanwhile, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had forecasted rainfall for December 25. However, the western disturbance failed to bring rainfall to the central and eastern parts of the country. Although the western region recorded light rainfall, it was insufficient to provide adequate ground moisture.

The weather remained cloudy across the country on Sunday and Monday and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecasted light rainfall for Tuesday. However, there is uncertainty about whether the weather system will persist or dissipate.

Govinda Jha, a meteorologist at the Meteorological Forecasting Division under the DHM, said that the western disturbance has impacted weather across the country. Light snowfall is likely in the mountainous areas of Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki provinces on Tuesday. However, there is a low likelihood of rainfall in the central and eastern parts of the country.

He added that the western disturbance is expected to bring light rainfall to the western part of the country.

In the meantime, winter is not consistent in the Tarai region of the country. While some parts of the Tarai are experiencing extreme cold, other areas are experiencing warmer conditions this winter.

In Bara and Parsa of Madhes Province, people who were grappling with a cold wave for the past two to three days last experienced relief as the weather remained clear and sunny on Monday. The elderly and children, who had fallen ill due to the cold wave, are feeling better thanks to the warmer, sunnier conditions.

However, in Mahottari district of the same province, people are not experiencing the cold weather as in previous years. So far, this winter, the district has not been affected by a cold wave. The temperature in the district has ranged from a minimum of 13 degrees Celsius to a maximum of 25 degrees Celsius.